Daily (06.03.2025): A rise in US crude stockpiles and the prospect of increased OPEC+ supply weighed on oil prices on Wednesday

On Wednesday, crude oil prices declined as markets reacted to the prospect of increased OPEC+ supply from April and concerns that a U.S.-led global trade war could hinder demand growth this year. Additional pressure came from a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles due to seasonal refinery maintenance.

As a result, Brent crude dropped by 2.5% to $69.30 per barrel. WTI crude plunged by almost 3%, on Wednesday, settling at $66.31 per barrel.

The NBP spot price dropped by nearly 3% to 99.00 p/therm on Wednesday, as a continued mild spell reduced supply concerns.

Expectations that a potential Ukraine ceasefire could boost Russian gas exports to Europe and increase gas availability, added further bearish pressure on British gas prices. Thus, on the forward curve, the Summer 2025 delivery contract slumped by 3.5% to around 100 p/therm.

European spot power prices diverged on Wednesday. The German spot price soared by over 14% to 89.82 EUR/MWh, due to a forecasted drop in wind generation. Meanwhile, the French spot price plunged by over 18% to 72.19 EUR/MWh, due to increased nuclear availability.

Forward power contracts fell on Wednesday, tracking bearish gas prices. The German Cal-2026 contract dropped by 1.6%, ending at 81.35 EUR/MWh, while the French Cal-2026 slipped by 0.5%, settling at 61.65 EUR/MWh.

European carbon prices saw a slight increase on Wednesday, driven by speculative buying. Additionally, expectations that gas storage replenishment could boost future demand for EUAs led to a 0.4% rise in EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 to 68.79 EUR/tonne.