BP: Electric vehicles will reduce oil consumption

22/02/2018 16:23 Renewable


The development of self-driving electric cars and travel sharing might reduce oil usage by 2040, as declared by oil and gas giant BP, which also predicted a peak in demand for the first time. 

BP presented its benchmark annual Energy Outlook, where the company forecasted 100-fold growth in electric vehicles by 2040, with its chief economist Spencer Dale revealing about a world in which we travel much more but instead of using private cars, we progressively make trips in self-driving vehicles.

According to BP’s scenario, stating that policies and technology continue to develop at a speed equivalent to that seen in the recent past, around 30% of car kilometers could be powered by electricity by 2040 from almost zero in 2016. At the same time, the number of EVs is to rise from 3 million today to more than 320 million by 2040, accounting for approximately 15% out of total number of cars of 2 billion.

Spencer Dale declared: ”The gap between the increasing number of EVs on the road and the kilometers powered by electricity is due to the expected growth in so-called shared mobility by EVs. Cars will be used much more intensely over time.”

As a result, fuel demand from the car fleet is expected to slip to 18.6 million barrels per day in 2040 from 18.7 million bpd in 2016, when it represented almost 20% of overall oil demand.

BP thinks autonomous vehicles will become accesible in the early 2020s. Their initial high cost signifies that most of the cars will be purchased by fleets offering shared mobility services.

Dale mentioned as well that the average electric car is likely to be driven about two and a half more than an internal combustion car.

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